Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Where are the doctors ??

Healthcare is one of the largest industries globally estimated to be around $2.8 trillion. In India the industry is valued at $79 billion growing at 17%. It is projected to hit $280 billion by 2020. These are large numbers very difficult to ignore, if you are an investor. Also, when you consider that 75-80% of the healthcare expenditure in India is spent by the private party.

Not surprisingly the sector has attracted a lot of investments the the last 24 months.


A staggering $600M has gone in the 2012 across 19 deals. This is the investment in health care delivery alone. Given where we are as a country my belief is that more investments are required to build our health care ecosytem. We need many more hospitals, specialized and otherwise to cater to the massive demand. But here is something I worry about...

We have about 450,000 doctors in our country. This means 1 doctor for about 2,500 people. We produce only 51,000 doctors in a year. About 1,000 of them go abroad for further studies. To change this ratio will take time given that it takes a minimum period of 5 years for a doctor to graduate. So all this capital going in to create infrastructure will hit a wall because there are not enough doctors around. Further, the willingness of a doctor to go to smaller towns will reduce as more money will chase them in bigger towns and cities.

A lot of money has gone into specialized care delivery whether in eyecare, diabetes, nephrology, etc. The ratio of specialists are even more dismal. Not much has gone into increasing the support system. demand for nursing, paramedics, etc will also go up if we are to reach better standards of healthcare delivery.

There must be a more planed investments from the govt to increase the pool of doctors today to see the benefits 5-10 years from now. They have come up with this plan of asking students who go abroad for higher studies to sign some kind of bond which I think is ridiculous. Instead they should focus on incentivizing people who are willing to stay back.